Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
