Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
